These high numbers of cases are translating to an increasing number of deaths. I along with Dr. Fridtj of Thomas did a rough calculation of the projected deaths in Shelby County for the next two months.
As of Dec. 18 over 800 people in Shelby County have died of COVID-19. This number may more than double if we do not take urgent public health action.
Question: How can we predict the number of deaths?
Answer: First, it is important to recognize Tennessee is experiencing an unprecedented number of daily cases of COVID-19, highest in the United States and in the world. While cases in Shelby county are rising, we are doing much better than our neighboring counties. We rank 89 among the 95 counties for the highest number of cases per hundred thousand population on the Covidactnow.org website.
These high numbers of cases are translating to an increasing number of deaths. I along with Dr. Fridtjof Thomas, a professor in the Department of Preventive Medicine at UTHSC, did a rough calculation of the projected deaths in Shelby County for the next two months.
We based our projections and epidemic curve on the worst hit state, North Dakota in the past two months.
We discovered that the number of new cases each day would lead to nearly a 1000 more deaths over the next two months. That would come to an average of 16 deaths from COVID-19per day, which would make it the third leading cause of death after heart disease and cancer in the county.
How can we prevent the large number of deaths from COVID-19?
If we undertook aggressive mitigation strategies like mandatory masking and increased restrictions on public gatherings this would reduce the number of cases and death.
If our restricted social behavior was similar to what we did in March and August 2020, we would only see half as many deaths as projected in the worst cases scenario.
Such mitigation measures would flatten the epidemic curve. It saved thousands of lives before and we can do the same again.
The greatest advantage in doing restrictions this time is that it will be the last time we will have to do this. This is the last and final wave. WIth the vaccine we will have blunted any future surges.
So, we need to really act now to save lives, reduce hospitalizations, and lower the number of cases.
The holiday season is a particularly difficult time because we usually socialize with extended family and friends. Yet, such interactions at this time will lead to excessive cases and deaths.
Our hope as doctors and public health officials is that the general population acts responsibly and avoids extended family gatherings for next few months.
This is a message that not only we need to heed but we need to seed and broadcast to our friends and family.
Dr. Manoj Jain, an infectious disease physician in Memphis, is also a member of the City of Memphis-Shelby County Joint COVID Task Force.
Source: Commercial Appeal
