In large gatherings such as family events, holiday parties, athletic competition, or church congregations one person can spread to an average of 15 persons or more.
Question: How many people can catch COVID-19 from one infected person?
Answer: If there is no masking or distancing, one person on average spreads the infection to 3 other people.
Yet, in large gatherings such as family events, holiday parties, athletic competition, or church congregations one person can spread to an average of 15 persons or more.
Take for example in a church in Arkansas, 35 people were infected. At a University of Vermont basketball game 17-40 persons were infected.
At the White House Rose Garden ceremony seven people were infected, and at a camp in Wisconsin 116 children were infected from one child.
Who is spreading the virus?
Studies show that some persons with COVID-19 infection are “super-spreaders” and they follow the 20-80 rule. That is: 10 to 20% of people with COVID-19 generate 80% of new infections. So, some people, and we do not know who, spread the virus to many others hence leading to super-spreader events.
In contrast, 60% of people infected with COVID-19 do not spread the virus to anyone.
For example, my brother-in-law became ill with COVID-19 and yet his wife and daughter who live with him did not become infected, though they were not masking or distancing for several days before his test came back positive.
Likewise, there are many discordant couples and household members.
All this makes it incumbent upon us to treat every positive person as a potential super spreader. In the many gatherings, all this becomes complicated because 40% of persons with COVID-19 do not display any symptoms.
So, should we be having gatherings?
While health experts discourage large gatherings, many people are still getting together. Here are ways to make it safer: masking distancing and testing.
So assume we have a gathering at church or at a community hall of a hundred people and one person is a super spreader. If no masking is done, then she will spread the infection to 15 others. If most individuals are masked, it will reduce the number of infected by half and if they distance then the number is further reduced and maybe only three new infections will occur instead of the 15.
Another strategy to prevent infection is to do testing before the event.
With assurance testing, which is asymptomatic, large scale, regular testing, at a cost of five dollars for a negative test or $30 per test, lowers the risk of infection.
There is a high likelihood that the COVID-19 infected person will be picked up before coming to the event, making the gathering more safe.
In the new normal we will need to cope and adjust and find innovative ways to stop the spread of the virus in our families, churches, schools, and workplaces through masking, distancing, and testing.
Dr. Manoj Jain, an infectious disease physician in Memphis, is also a member of the City of Memphis-Shelby County Joint COVID Task Force.
Please send questions for Dr. Jain to metro@commercialappeal.com
Source: Commercial Appeal
