Though there are questions raised regarding the vaccines’ safety and efficiency, it still remains the best defenses in the fight against COVID-19.
Vaccine expert anticipates vaccine distribution to improve, despite rough start. Dean of the School of Public Health at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, Dr. Paul Erwin, anticipates vaccine distribution will continue to improve.
My nurse refused to get the vaccine. She is young, healthy, smart but skeptical. “I want to wait,” she said to me.
“Why?” I inquired. We have an infectious disease practice and over half of our patients are COVID-19 positive.
“I want to see what happens as others get the vaccine,” she says.
My nurse is not alone. 27% of all Americans and 29% of healthcare workers say they would probably or definitely not get the vaccine according to a Kaiser Family Foundation Survey in December 2020.
My initial efforts to persuade her are not successful, so I delve into the original vaccine study data to see if I can find pointers to persuade her.
Data shows the vaccine is best defense
Almost always, in double-blind placebo-controlled trials, the group that gets the real treatment garners all the attention. The Pfizer vaccine study found an astounding 95% efficacy rate for those who received the vaccine. In other words, only 8 of 19,234 became infected over the course of 2 months.
But what does the trial reveal about the fate of those, like my nurse and 100 million Americans, who are similar to the placebo group in the trial and may not get vaccinated?
In the Pfizer study, another 19,818 people received placebo injections, three weeks apart. When we look at the two curves of weekly COVID-19 infections among those who were and were not vaccinated, we begin to see a stark divergence two weeks after the first dose.
For those who are vaccinated, the curve flattens while for those receiving the saline injection the number of new infections continues to climb week after week.
Over two months of follow-up, 162 cases of COVID-19 occurred in the placebo group, which is about 1.3% over a course of two months. This was during the months of July to November in six countries: the USA, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, South Africa, and Turkey, with most cases from the United States. With the surge occurring in many regions at present, the number infected without the vaccine would be much greater. So if my nurse and others choose not to get vaccinated over a year their chances of getting COVID-19 infection are 8% or more. Over six years nearly half the population will be infected, if not vaccinated.
The reality is that we need the vaccine
There is no escaping the COVID-19 virus, even if one takes all the precautions. I know family, friends, doctors, and political leaders who have taken more precautions than me, and still many have fallen ill with COVID-19, some hospitalized and a few who died.
Last month, one doctor colleague traveled out of town to comfort his family who were ill with COVID-19 just two days before the rollout of the vaccine at our hospitals. He contracted the virus, was admitted to the hospital and died. I wonder if he could have been saved if he had the vaccine. There will be thousands who will have a similar fate.
Even those who have been positive for COVID-19 in the past might not be safe. The placebo group shows that a previous history of infection was not entirely protective in preventing an infection.
By the raw number again from the Pfizer EUA, 670 people in the placebo group had a history of prior COVID-19 infection at enrollment, and 9 cases occurred. So even with prior infection, one is not fully protected.
This striking finding led the researchers to write, “While limited, these data do suggest that previously infected individuals can be at risk of COVID-19 (ie reinfection) and could benefit from the vaccine.”
More from Dr. Jain:How does our immune system work to fight COVID-19? A Q&A with Dr. Manoj Jain
It’s likely that this finding leads the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to recommend that all persons, with or without a history of COVID-19 infection, should get the vaccine.
When I talk to my nurse or others in the community, I say “You have a choice: get the vaccine or get the virus.”
In time you will likely get one or the other. It’s better to get the vaccine even with the uncertainties about the long-term safety and efficacy, and as each week passes, we gather more data that show the vaccine is very safe and effective. If you get the virus there is a 10% chance of becoming severely ill and possibly hospitalized, and a 10% chance of having long-term illness with brain fog or chronic fatigue.
I understand people’s hesitation.
With my nurse, I recall the Life Cereal commercial where two kids are sitting at the breakfast table and pass a bowl of cereal to Mikey. Initially saying “He won’t eat it. He hates everything” And then to their surprise he eats it enthusiastically. “He likes it. Hey Mikey!!” I think that is what the response to the vaccine will be like.
This week, my nurse proudly told me she got the vaccine, reassured by seeing no untoward effect to me and other providers. Millions of Americans did the same. I hope the number grows rapidly.
Source: Commercial Appeal